Life-or-death moments embolden ‘America First’

Future leaders. The political environment in the United States is lurching from disgust to shock. On Saturday, former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania. What this means for his contest with Democrat Joe Biden in November, a race until now marked by disdain for both candidates, is as yet unclear. But as the final Trump holdouts in the Republican Party rally around its candidate, the dividing lines between the parties - and the resolve to engage in wrenching policy changes - will harden.

The shift began almost immediately. Republicans like Senator Susan Collins or former Governor Nikki Haley, who fought against Trump for her party’s nomination, previously maintained a hostile distance from the former president. In a reversal, Haley will now speak at the party’s national convention on Tuesday. Other elites, too, are formalizing their support: Tesla boss Elon Musk and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman have now explicitly backed Trump.

Compare that to just six weeks ago, when Trump became the first former president to be convicted of a felony, charged of falsifying records related to hush-money payments. Polls showed half of Americans saying he should suspend his campaign, and Biden narrowed his opponent’s lead. A disastrous debate performance in late June then mired the current president’s candidacy in questions about his fitness to serve.

The threat to Trump’s life could prompt people who were otherwise uninspired to get out to vote for him. More importantly, a fully aligned party would contrast with his last administration, where attempts at sweeping overhauls stumbled over internal bickering, leading to record-high cabinet turnover. As elites fall in line, Trump’s agenda could enjoy more disciplined, forceful implantation if he wins in November.

And that agenda is unlikely to suddenly turn conciliatory. Republican policy thinkers have suggested rooting out recalcitrant career staff at federal agencies. Sweeping exits at, say, Biden’s Federal Trade Commission have shown only a small part of what is possible.

That will harden the domestic partisan divide. But it also carries implications for America’s peer nations. Trump is plenty hostile to China, but a febrile political environment marked by violence and unifying around one figure only promises to raise the stakes. Proposed tariffs may just be the start to a new era of “America first”.