‘US elections set to affect Indian markets,’ Ajay Bagga’s guide for today

Quick Guide to Today: US Election vote counting has started. Markets are reacting to every news flow, as y are primed to do. Election Day will turn into Election Night. risk is , it could become Election Week or Weeks . With elevated volatility, markets will lurch from Trump Tres to Harris Tres, bursting through stop losses on both sides. Best to wait this out, at least for today. 7 Swing States are staying too close to call. Voting in some states will continue till 12 midnight ET US time. We are getting calls on winners in East Coast states alrey . Patience is biggest virtue for investors today. Let a winner emerge, we will be back with an analysis of what will work for India and what will t. For w, wait.

1. US Presidential results may take time, especially if margin is very tight. 

2. Expect lawsuits, counterclaims and recounting in a few districts.

3. US Senate and US House of Reps majorities will be clear within next few hours so those will give us an idea of how White House incumbent will be constrained or be enabled to run ir Policy nda.

4. re are different Policy outcomes based on who wins White House today. 

5. However, on-ground Policy outcome will start taking shape post new President's inauguration on January 20th. 

6. Markets are reacting and will react much ahe of January 20th.

7. Key Policy issues will be around Immigration, US isolationism/protectionism/tariffs, US fiscal deficit and Debt levels, Taxation, Regulation, Health insurance, Defence ties with allies and ability to contain/ stop armed conflicts in Ukraine and Middle East.

8. Emerging Markets including India will see an impact through tariffs, commodity prices, and portfolio flows.

We will analyse policies once re is clarity on White House Winner.