Success in fantasy sports linked to player skill, not chance: Study

Users with experience are more successful at fantasy sports, according to a statistical study by Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Bangalore and SP Jain Institute of Management & Research. The study titled ‘Decision Support System for Policy-Making: Quantifying Skill and Chance in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS)’, showcases a data-driven approach to determine, through empirical evidence, whether any game is a game of skill or chance. The report further reveals users learn from experience and can improve their performances in fantasy sports while in a game of chance, experience will not affect their winnability. The study concludes that DFS is a skill dominant game.

Led by Professor U Dinesh Kumar from IIM Bangalore, the report analyses performance data to identify how much of a player’s success is based on their skill and how much of it is by chance. It aims to get a clear picture of the success driver in fantasy sports. By analysing users’ performances across 2951 matches with over 160,000 contests, the study concluded that the effect of users’ skill is significantly more than that of them winning by chance.

“This research provides a decision support system that can allow policymakers to objectively and quantitatively differentiate between games of skill and chance. The framework proposed in the study can be replicated for any online game, subject to data availability,” Kumar said.

“Such frameworks are key to formulating regulations based on data science and better suited to address the challenges stemming from emerging technologies and new age sectors,” he added.

The study found that users who consistently performed well in the past also perform better in current sports contests. Additionally, users who participated recently in fantasy sports exhibit higher winning probability. The data for this study is from 2013-2016 and 2020-2023.