Inflation Rate To Go Up? Here's What WPI Numbers Say

The  Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation data stood at 2.37 per cent (provisional) in December 2024, an increase from the previous month's rate of 1.89 per cent.

According to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, the positive inflation rate was mainly driven by rising prices in key segments such as food and non- food articles, as well as manufactured food products, and textiles.

WPI Numbers : Macro Perspective

However, retail inflation data released on Monday, January 13 showed that consumer price index (CPI) based inflation eased to 4-month low of 5.22 per cent in December on easing food prices.

The WPI for all commodities decreased marginally by 0.38 per cent month-over-month (MoM) in December 2024, reflecting price corrections across certain segments.

However, year-over-year (YoY) inflation showed notable upward trends due to underlying demand and cost pressures in specific sectors.

WPI Numbers : Category Wise

In the Primary Articles category (with a weight of 22.62 per cent), the index declined by 2.07 per cent MoM, reaching 193.8 in December 2024.

This decrease was driven by a 3.08 per cent drop in food articles and a 2.87 per cent decline in crude petroleum and natural gas prices.

However, there were price increases in non-food articles (2.53 per cent) and minerals (0.48 per cent) during the same period. The Fuel and Power group (with a weight of 13.15 per cent) saw an increase of 1.90 per cent, bringing its index to 149.9.

This rise was driven by an 8.81 per cent surge in electricity prices and a slight increase in coal prices. On the other hand, mineral oil prices declined marginally by 0.06 per cent.

For Manufactured Products (with a weight of 64.23 per cent), the index remained stable at 143.0 in December 2024.

Among the 22 subgroups of manufactured products, 11 saw price increases, including textiles, chemicals, and fabricated metal products.

However, certain groups such as basic metals, food products, and machinery witnessed price decreases.

WPI Food Inflation

The WPI Food Index, which includes food articles from the primary group and food products from the manufactured group, decreased from 200.3 in November 2024 to 195.9 in December 2024.

Consequently, the annual food inflation rate slowed slightly from 8.92 per cent in November to 8.89 per cent in December 2024.

For historical context, the final WPI for October 2024 stood at 156.7, reflecting an annual inflation rate of 2.75 per cent.

The provisional figures for December 2024 were compiled with a weighted response rate of 87.5 per cent, whereas the final data for October had a response rate of 95.9 per cent.

The WPI data for December 2024 underscores the complexities of inflationary pressures in India. While food inflation remains a key concern, price moderation in certain sectors provides a degree of balance.

Looking ahead, the WPI for January 2025 is expected to be released on February 14.