Published 11:10 IST, November 7th 2024
Markets got Trump 2.0 right. What now?
The markets got the Trump Trade right. US Stocks rallied, US yields increased and bond prices fell, the US dollar rallied and Cryptocurrencies rallied.
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It is 77 days till inauguration of next US President, Donald Trump as 47th President. Republicans has flipped US Senate majority in ir control. House results are t in fully, but Republicans are leing for w.
markets got Trump Tre right. US Stocks rallied, US yields increased and bond prices fell, US dollar rallied and Cryptocurrencies rallied in last month preceding vember 5th US Elections.
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What w? Or, w What? for purists.
- Trump has proved pollsters and most of partisan/biased mainstream US media wrong and pulled off an incredible win.
- key policy planks that investors, global politicians and policymakers will be looking at will be:
- Tariffs on all imports into US, especially big tariffs on China
- Deregulation, benefitting banks, oil and gas industry, energy producers and US manufacturing
- De-immigration (inventing a word here), deportation of illegal immigrants and higher entry barriers for immigration
- A boost to China+1
- Resolution of simmering geopolitical hotspots in Ukraine and Middle East
- Continuation of Trump 1.0 2017-2025 favourable tax rates
- Tax cuts on some segments of earnings, including tips for hospitality workers and over time earnings for workers et al.
- Higher fiscal spending, higher debt levels and concomitantly higher inflation.
- Implications for Global ecomy and US ecomy are huge.
- De-globalisation continues with tariff barriers being raised furr
- A US-China destructive tre war looms
- China will take pre-emptive measures, from an expected stimulus anuncement on Friday at conclusion of NPC
- China will also le exporting country currencies into a series of “competitive currency devaluation” cycle.
- Expect currencies from Renminbi to Rupiah to Won to Rupee heing lower with respect to US Dollar .
- Emerging Market flows will slow down, as a strong US Dollar and high US Treasury yields keep US money market funds attractive for global capital
- US Federal Reserve will cut rates today, Thursday, vember 7th, and will probably do ar cut at its December 18th meeting. However, we could see a wait and watch policy outcome early next year.
- Renewable energy sectors will face uncertainty and a lack of policy priority.
- European allies will have to spend more of ir GDP on ir own defence and will watch Ukraine Russia end game with concern.
- Israel will be brought to negotiating table with favourable terms and unstinted US support backing it
- entry of energetic, successful hedge fund manrs and entrepreneurs into Trump 2.0 ministration will unleash a lot of hope for pragmatic ecomic policies.
We will have more clarity over next few weeks and markets will move in vance, in anticipation and as always, be proved ultimately correct. US exceptionalism is here to stay. China faces a Japan of 1980s kind of challenge to its rising ecomic clout. That will be defining conflict of this Presidency.
09:15 IST, November 7th 2024