Pets population in China to double those of young children by 2030

Pet population in China: China's pet population is projected to nearly double that of its young children by 2030, according to media reports citing Goldman Sachs. The country's urban pet population is expected to exceed 70 million by the end of the decade, while the number of children aged four and under is anticipated to decline to fewer than 40 million. 

This marks a major shift from 2017, when there were 90 million children aged four and under in China, compared to an urban pet population of approximately 40 million.

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Goldman Sachs, citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics, attributes this trend to a reluctance among young Chinese to start families. 

"We expect stronger momentum in pet ownership amid a relatively weaker birth rate outlook and higher incremental household pet penetration from the younger generation," a Goldman Sachs analyst noted. 

The report highlights that new births in China are expected to decline at an average rate of 4.2 per cent annually until 2030, driven by a shrinking population of women aged 20 to 35 and a younger generation increasingly less inclined to have children.

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As of 2023, nearly half of China's pet owners were aged between 23 and 33, according to the China Pet Industry White Paper. With young adults in China opting for pets over children, Goldman Sachs forecasts the country's pet food market to grow into a 12 billion industry by 2030. The report also predicts that cat ownership will surpass that of dogs, as cats typically require less space to raise.

The trend is part of a broader global phenomenon of declining birth rates, with women around the world choosing to have fewer children. The world population is expected to peak this century, with some of the largest countries, including China, experiencing population declines.

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China's population fell for the second consecutive year in 2023, dropping by 2.08 million to 1.41 billion people. Despite a 12.4 per cent increase in new marriages in 2023 compared to the previous year, over half of the population aged 25 to 29 remains unmarried, with late marriages becoming increasingly common.

The report also drew comparisons with Japan, where the pet population of around 20 million is nearly four times the number of children aged four and under, as of 2022.