FOMC Meeting today: Will Fed chair Jerome Powell cut rates - Check timing, expectations

Fed rate cut announcement: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its latest policy decision today on November 07, with markets broadly expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut. 

The anticipated decision follows the recent US presidential election, with President Trump’s re-election sparking speculation about the pace of future rate reductions.

Market expectations and projections

The FedWatch tool indicates futures markets are factoring in only an additional 42 basis points of cuts between December and March, over the next three scheduled meetings. The probability of a December rate cut has moderated, now standing at 70 per cent, down from 77 per cent just a day prior.

Investors are also looking at the policy trajectory, with interest in how the Fed might manage rate cuts amid recent political shifts. Gold investors, in particular, are paying close attention as the prospect of multiple cuts has bolstered a strong rally in bullion prices throughout the year.

Fed rate cut announcement timing and schedule

The Fed’s rate decision will be announced at 2 pm ET (12:30 am IST) on 7 November, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 pm ET (1:00 am IST). The subsequent FOMC rate decision is slated for 18 December.

Rate Cuts into 2026?

Commenting on the FOMC’s potential policy shift, Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that a cut is likely today, though markets will scrutinise Powell’s language for any hints of a pause. 

According to a report by Reuters quoting Oxford Economics analysts, inflationary effects from tariffs and expansionary fiscal measures are expected to take time, potentially allowing the Fed to cut rates through 2026 to recalibrate policy.

“I start to worry when yields cross the 4.5 per cent mark,” told Matt Orton, chief market strategist at Raymond James Investment Management to Reuters, reflecting broader concerns over rising yields amid ongoing rate adjustments. 

The Fed’s next move will likely be scrutinised for any indicators of a slower approach to future cuts, particularly given the recent political context and shifting economic outlook.