Donald Trump May Impose 40% Tariffs On China By 2025? Poll Reveals Likely Roadmap

The United States, under President Donald Trump may put roughly 40% tariffs on Chinese imports early next year, a poll by news agency Reuters has revealed. According to the agency report, the tariff hike could cut growth in the second-largest economy in the world by as much as 1%.

The survey, which is the first one Reuters has conducted on China's economy since Donald Trump's resounding election victory on November 5, also indicates that the president-elect will not immediately impose sweeping 60% tariffs on Chinese goods as has been anticipated by China-US observers.

Tariffs to be implemented:

According to the Reuters survey of more than 50 economists conducted between November 13–20, the majority of respondents—both inside and outside of mainland China—expect Trump to enact the tariffs by the beginning of next year, with estimates ranging from 15% to 60% and a median estimate of 38%.

Since this could hasten US inflation, the majority of respondents stated that they do not anticipate imposing sweeping 60% tariffs on Chinese goods in early 2025.

"We expect the new US administration to bring back the original plan of Trump 1.0," ANZ's chief economist Raymond Yeung said.

Donald Trump's tariffs: Potential impact on China

Regarding the possible effect on China, the survey estimated that new tariffs imposed by the United States will lower China's economic growth by 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points in 2025.

However, in line with predictions made prior to the U.S. elections, the majority of economists surveyed have kept their median growth projections for this year and 2025 at 4.8% and 4.5%, respectively. In 2026, growth is predicted to further decline to 4.2%.

Their outlooks may be downgraded as a result of the Trump administration's trade policies with China.