Reliance Q2 results today: Reliance net profit may decline amid oil sales, Jio in focus

Reliance Q2 results preview: Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), led by Mukesh Ambani , is expected to report a second consecutive quarter of subdued performance, with a projected year-on-year (YoY) net profit decline of 11-13 per cent for the September quarter, on relatively flat net sales. Analysts have cautioned that a slight drop in production in RIL's upstream business, along with a higher share of profit petroleum for the government, may impact margins.

The core oil-to-chemicals (O2C) segment is anticipated to underperform, but this may be partially offset by strong results in the company’s consumer-facing businesses. Analysts are particularly focused on the average revenue per user (ARPU) figures for Jio following recent tariff hikes.

According to media reports, JM Financial predicts an 11 per cent YoY decline in RIL’s net profit to Rs 15,518 crore, compared with Rs 17,394 crore in the same quarter last year. It expects sales to come in at Rs 2,30,715 crore, down 0.5 per cent from Rs 2,31,784 crore a year ago. 

The brokerage estimates the company’s gross refining margin (GRM) at $7.2 per barrel, down from an implied $7.7 per barrel in the first quarter of FY25. Jio’s ARPU is expected to rise to Rs 194, driven by the tariff hike, customer upgrades, and an extra day in the quarter.

Similarly, ICICI Securities projects an 11 per cent drop in RIL’s profit to Rs 15,400 crore, while it forecasts a 4 per cent YoY increase in sales to Rs 2,40,500 crore. Emkay Global expects Jio’s ARPU to rise 4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to Rs 188.70, with net subscribers largely unchanged. 

It also foresees a 1 per cent QoQ increase in retail EBITDA to Rs 5,700 crore, but a 1 per cent drop in upstream EBITDA to Rs 5,100 crore, citing higher operating expenses. Consolidated profit after tax is expected to rise by 1 per cent QoQ to Rs 15,300 crore.

Systematix Institutional Equities predicts a 25.9 per cent YoY decline in O2C EBITDA due to weak refining and petrochemical operations. However, better performance in RIL's digital platforms, bolstered by tariff hikes, is expected to deliver a 16.9 per cent YoY rise in EBITDA.

Nuvama estimates a 6 per cent YoY decline in RIL's consolidated EBITDA, primarily due to the underperformance of the O2C business, which is forecast to see a 27 per cent YoY drop in EBITDA. The brokerage expects O&G EBITDA to grow 4 per cent YoY on the back of a 3 per cent YoY production increase, while retail EBITDA is expected to rise 7 per cent, supported by a 10 per cent increase in retail space. Jio’s EBITDA is projected to grow by 12 per cent YoY, driven by a 5 per cent increase in ARPU. Nuvama has also lowered its target price for RIL to Rs 3,660, citing weakness in the O2C segment.

The brokerage expects RIL's Q2 net profit at Rs 15,120 crore, a 13 per cent YoY decline, with sales at Rs 2,33,484 crore, up 0.5 per cent.

RIL is also expected to announce the record date for its 1:1 bonus share issue along with its September quarter results. The company revealed its sixth bonus issue, the largest in Indian corporate history, on 5 September.