Budget for achieving ‘Viksit Bharat’ objective: Key numbers to be watched

Key stats to watch out for: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present her seventh consecutive Budget on Tuesday. This budget aims to outline a roadmap for a "Viksit Bharat" by 2047 and highlight the PM Narendra Modi-led government's achievements over the past decade.

Key points of interest include the potential for middle-class tax relief, in light of current tax buoyancy. The market is also looking for the government to adhere to its fiscal glide path, aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by 2025-26.

In her first Budget in 2019, Sitharaman replaced the traditional leather briefcase with a red-cloth wrapped 'bahi-khata' (ledger). This year's Budget will continue the trend of being paperless, as has been the practice for the past three years.

Here are the key numbers to watch in the first full Budget of Modi's third term:

Fiscal Deficit

The fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year is projected at 5.1 per cent, down from 5.8 per cent in the previous year, as indicated in the Interim Budget. The full Budget is expected to show improved projections due to tax buoyancy. The government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.5 per cent of GDP by FY26.

Capital Expenditure

The government has budgeted capital expenditure at Rs 11.1 lakh crore for this fiscal year, up from Rs 9.5 lakh crore last year. This reflects a push for infrastructure development and incentivising states to increase their capital expenditure.

Tax Revenue

The Interim Budget estimated gross tax revenue at Rs 38.31 lakh crore for 2024-25, an 11.46 per cent increase over the previous fiscal. This includes Rs 21.99 lakh crore from direct taxes (personal income tax and corporate tax) and Rs 16.22 lakh crore from indirect taxes (customs, excise duty, and GST).

GST Collection

GST collection is projected to rise to Rs 10.68 lakh crore in 2024-25, an 11.6 per cent increase. The final Budget will confirm these figures for the 2024-25 fiscal year.

Borrowing

The government's gross borrowing is budgeted at Rs 14.13 lakh crore for the current financial year, as per the Interim Budget. The market is closely watching this figure, particularly given the higher-than-expected dividends from the RBI and financial institutions.

Nominal GDP

India's nominal GDP growth (real GDP plus inflation) is estimated at 10.5 per cent, reaching Rs 327.7 trillion in the current fiscal year, according to the Interim Budget. With an anticipated normal monsoon, improved revenue collections, and increased rural consumption, there may be an upward revision in growth estimates. Real GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent, as per the RBI.

Dividend

The Interim Budget projected Rs 1.02 lakh crore from the RBI and financial institutions, but this is expected to be revised upwards, with the RBI having already transferred a surplus of Rs 2.11 lakh crore in May. Additionally, Rs 43,000 crore is expected from Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs).

Key Schemes and Sectors

The Budget will also focus on spending for key schemes like NREGA and essential sectors such as health and education.