Why the 2024 elections are critical for the economy...

Every election is important for the economy just like every monsoon in India. But the truth of the matter is that more than any other time, this time round, the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will have a profound impact on the state of India’s economy. I will also go ahead and take a wager that the next Prime Minister of India will be Narendra Modi but despite that why would I  (or anyone else) then worry about the impact of the results or the results themselves. For starters, let’s dwell on the kind of leader that Narendra Modi is. He is certainly not the kind who believes in consensus or consensus-building: that is not his style; his is a more muscular and definitive style which has no room to acquiesce to any kind of pressure or the need to please should he be forced into forming a coalition. His management style is more lone wolf rather than the kind who believes in carrying others with him. He is startlingly different from Atal Behari Vajpayee and thank god for that. Vajpayee was a loved politician but not necessarily a great leader. Of the many flaws that Vajpayee had, the foremost was his unwillingness or perhaps the inability to reign in continuous clawing both from within his party (L K Advani to be precise) or for that matter the constant bullying at the hands of the allies trio namely Mamata Banerjee, J Jayalalitha and Mayawati. These women had total control and often used blackmail tactics to force decisions out of Vajpayee. Something that even Chandrababu Naidu did including convincing Vajpayee to call the elections early in 2004. Modi is different. His style of management does not have room for either kowtowing or submitting himself to any kind of blackmail. He is both ruthless and very clear about what he wants to achieve and has been running Governments for far too long to be easily fooled about either motives or outcomes. Coalitions is not Modi’s thing. Never has been and never will be hence it is essential is that he has a clear majority to form Government but the BJP getting a clear majority is not enough. They also need to ensure that the Opposition parties are splintered enough not to be able to forge any alliance which can thwart Modi’s plans in Parliament and beyond.

The I.N.D.I.A. alliance is a disparate desperate group whose only objective is unbridled power: they are reminiscent of the rogue behaviour of Boris Johnson and his compatriots when they forced Brexit on the United Kingdom without ever having a plan of their own. The worry that I have about this rag-tag alliance is two-fold. They are a non-serious bunch of self-serving politicians who couldn’t care less about the country as long as they are in power. In addition to this, they are ostensibly haters of capitalism which will make India both a turbulent place to do business in whilst acutely blunting India’s investment attractiveness which we as a nation can ill-afford just when we are at the stage we are at. If the alliance has enough electoral clout they will use disruption as their weapon and not material and genuine contribution to the Indian cause.

Their motive will be to shame, embarrass and cripple Modi and his ability to function: something that will eventually harm India more than Modi. Which is why it is critical we have an Opposition that is accountable and not gargantuan: because the former will allow Modi to continue and finish what he started without having to always look over his shoulder for vicious political sniping. And that is exactly what the Opposition will engage in. They have no strategy, and no plan, as is evident from their utterances. They detest each other and it is the politics of convenience and not ideology that has drawn them together. In such an environment their desire will be to oppose for opposing’s sake than provide any positive solutions: something that will harm India and businesses therein. We have seen the irresponsible statements that Rahul Gandhi has been making over the last one year qua India and Indian Industry: from questioning our federalism he has gone on to heap abuse on Indian industry: and this coming from a man who has never done a day’s work but gotten everything on a platter owing to a calibrated surname. The question that we need to ask is do we really want our country to be stopped in its track.

And this is not about questioning democracy. It is about the efficacy of a responsible democracy which perforce will need a responsible Opposition and not some cowboys on a rampage.                             

(Suhel Seth is Managing Partner of Counselage India: suhel@counselage.com)