Business dynamics of the new world order

We are now in a world of uncertainty, chaos, and turbulence, a rapidly evolving New World Order disrupting demand and supply. The future is no longer a predictable path. The crucial question is whether businesses are ready for this New World Order. Our research and discussions with leaders reveal that organisations, regardless of size, grapple with stressors impacting their efficiencies and effectiveness across their value chains. The alignment of these organisations with their macro environment is under increasing pressure as we progress in this era of the New World Order. We are trained to predict and operate in scenarios that are linear in trend. This linearity can be subjected to statistical models to derive high-reliability predictions. Businesses in the past could thus rely on experience-based decision-making. All that is failing now because we are operating in non-linear business dynamics, which means that trends are difficult to predict and the future seems hazy and unpredictable. We are exposed to low-probability, high-impact events that put organisations at high risk and cause an exponential increase in internal stressors across the business's ecosystem. The silver lining is that once business leaders accept this new reality, they realise that organisations must continually lead change and transformation. This accelerated change will thus operate in transitions over extended periods, and therefore, thriving in uncertainty is the new mantra for businesses. Our research underscores organisations' need to invest in scenario planning and experiment with multiple choices continually. Intelligent Business Experiments guided by the data analytics of a well-established control centre are not just a strategic choice but a growth imperative. The risk in decision-making today is like-minded people coming together to finalise poorly deliberated choices. Thus, it is recommended that outlier ideas be the way to deal with outlier events of this New World Order. Organisations must foster cross-functional or cross-group strategic teams that can design working prototypes for multiple ideas based on scenario planning. The above becomes important because geo-politics in this New World Order will present various challenges owing to the formation and extension of blocs. Global Economies will also pose challenges, and many existing markets will expose organisations to economic stresses. Technology disruptions follow an exponential trend, which will demand fast-paced technological maturity. These factors will challenge business sustainability and continuity models consistently. While governments will also have to be seized of this new reality by being agile, organisations must become nimble in design. In both scenarios, a complex bureaucratic structure will pose a daunting challenge. The industry must ensure increasing participation in policy-making; a collaborative approach is the only way. The interconnected global economies and businesses will have to learn to navigate the tensions this New World Order poses. The Quality of Leadership thus becomes a crucial mediating factor in these complexities. Nations and organisations with capable leaders are the best bets for ensuring success. So, what must organisations do to ensure success in this New World Order? Designing your business ecosystem is now a critical success factor. In this world of tech-driven hyper-competition, partnering with the best will help you navigate the long winters of erratic business cycles. While traditional management models will still work during certain normal times, when unpredictability becomes a reality, experimentation is the only way ahead. Also, be aware that all experiments will only sometimes yield positive effects. Challenging existing business models and investing in reinvention is also an essential option. It is crucial to conclude by stating that the future is secure for High-Reliability organisations. These are businesses that demonstrate strategic and operations resilience. In this era of the New World Order, much of Management Research is now invested in Business Resilience Research. Resilient Organisations will not just survive but thrive in this New World Order due to their innate strategic capability of planning, absorbing, recovering, and growing after every turbulence. Shareholder trust will thus be with these High-Reliability organisations that will thrive in this New World Order of chaos, turbulence, and unpredictability, providing a sense of security and confidence in the face of uncertainty.Niket Karajagi is the Executive Director of Atyaasa Consulting Private Limited. He is a New World Order Researcher and Design Thinking Facilitator.

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Business dynamics of the new world order

The silver lining is that once business leaders accept this new reality, they realise that organisations must continually lead change and transformation.

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