Ola down-round will jolt India’s IPO hopefuls

Charge down. Indian equities are trading at eye-popping premiums, but a bit of caution is creeping into one corner of the market. SoftBank-backed e-scooter maker Ola Electric on Monday launched its initial public offering, seeking a valuation of up to $4 billion. That's a quarter lower than its previous funding round in September, a sign that investor patience for unprofitable tech stars is running thin. It sends a warning to other upstarts eyeing a stock market debut.

It took Ola just three years to become the largest manufacturer of battery-run scooters in the world’s second-biggest market for two-wheelers, accounting for more than a third of sales during the year to the end of March. And its share is still growing.

It helps that the company founded by Bhavish Aggarwal has benefitted from New Delhi’s production-linked subsidies for making electric vehicles and the cells to fuel them. It expects to power its bikes with its own lithium batteries, starting next year.

Such stellar growth is appealing. Fidelity and Nomura are likely to be anchor investors, Reuters reported on Monday, citing unnamed sources with direct knowledge. Yet, the insistence on a down-round signals they want Ola’s valuation to hew closer to those of its listed competitors.

At the top end of its IPO price band, Ola’s enterprise value works out to $4.3 billion after accounting for outstanding debt and lease liabilities worth $325 million, according to Breakingviews calculations based on the company’s prospectus. That implies a multiple of 7 times its $600 million revenue for 2023 to 2024, higher than closest rival TVS Motor’s 4.5 times and Bajaj Auto’s 6 times. Both firms currently sell more gas guzzlers than EVs.

Profitability is front of mind for investors singed by the post-listing performance of India’s former tech poster children. Beauty retailer Nykaa’s parent FSN E-commerce is trading at one-sixth its 2021 IPO price and Paytm owner One97 Communications’ losses are widening after regulators ordered its banking unit to wind down.

Aggarwal is betting on sales growth to drive margin gains. Using its own cells may also help Ola cut spending on a component constituting one-third of the overall cost of making an e-scooter, he said on Monday.

Investors are less willing to pay upfront for those gains. That’s a message for food delivery giant Swiggy, which has filed confidentially for a $1.3 billion float and whose bigger rival Zomato turned profitable in the last financial year.

Scale is still a big selling point in India, but it’s no longer an adequate one.