Joe Biden displays power and risks of incumbency

Known Unknowns. Leaders of large companies tend to benefit from a grip on their office. A sitting president of the United States is almost impossible to dislodge. That makes President Joe Biden’s announcement on Sunday that he will not stand for re-election momentous. His replacement as the Democratic Party nominee to face Donald Trump on Nov. 5 will do so without the power and risks of incumbency.

In some ways, it’s surprising that Biden did not reach this conclusion earlier. The question of his age has been a cloud over his campaign for the last year and a half. Since an abysmal performance in a debate against Trump late last month, dozens of Democratic members of Congress have called for him to stand down. Biden stood defiant, as did the people closest to him, including party chair Jaime Harrison and First Lady Jill Biden. But the pressure mounted as party leaders including former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, former President Barack Obama, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer expressed their concerns to the commander-in-chief directly, according to news reports.

The instinct to protect the person in charge is natural and widespread. Research shows people are inclined to make a choice that will produce the least amount of change. Advisers and confidants tend to rely on a leader for power and employment. Ego, fear, and even a pack mentality can keep organizations from doing the right thing. Voters also tend to give incumbent presidents the benefit of the doubt: In U.S. history, only 10 have lost their bid for re-election.

The dangers play out when an apparently irreplaceable leader suffers poor health. Take former Apple CEO Steve Jobs. As his health deteriorated while he was undergoing cancer treatment, the iPhone maker opted for only partial disclosure, revealing that Jobs had taken a leave of absence but not the gravity of his prognosis. Jobs formally stepped down in August 2011 and died less than two months later. Over the next five years the tech giant underperformed its rival Alphabet, then known as Google.

The difference between corporate leaders and presidents, of course, is that the former serve at the pleasure of the board of directors, while the latter are democratically elected. The power of occupying the Oval Office is such that the American constitution limits presidents to two terms. Biden’s reluctance to give up his nomination reflects the difficulty of quickly changing course. Naming a new nominee at this late stage is also bound to be messy. The president has thrown his support behind Vice President Kamala Harris, who if chosen will probably run on the record of the last four years. Still, she or someone else will have to face Trump without the benefits of being the incumbent. Chances are, the party’s stock has fallen.