India's working-age population to surge, expected to reach 64% in next census: SBI Research

India’s working-age population is on the rise and is projected to reach 64.4 per cent in the forthcoming national census, according to a recent report by SBI Research. This trend, which has been ongoing since 1971, is expected to further increase to 65.2 per cent by 2031, providing a significant demographic advantage to the country as it continues its rapid development.

The report, authored by SBI ’s Group Chief Economic Adviser Soumya Kanti Ghosh, reveals that the share of individuals in the 15-59 age group has steadily risen, from 55.4 per cent in 1991 to 60.7 per cent in 2021. However, the population growth rate is slowing. The average annual growth rate, which stood at 2.20 per cent in 1971, is forecast to drop to 1.00 per cent by 2024. This slowdown puts India’s total population at an estimated 138-142 crore in the upcoming census.

Regional Population Shifts

The report also highlights stark regional differences in population growth. Southern states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana are witnessing a decline in population growth, while northern states, led by Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, continue to drive the country’s population increase. Together, northern and eastern regions are expected to account for 52 per cent of the total population growth.

The census, delayed since 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, is expected to resume soon. This exercise is critical for providing essential socio-economic and demographic data, which serves as the backbone of national policy formulation. The previous census was conducted in 2011, and India has experienced significant changes since then, particularly in its digital infrastructure and urbanisation.

Changing Demographics

While the working-age population grows, the share of children (0-14 years) has been steadily declining. According to the report, children accounted for 30.9 per cent of the population in 2011 but are projected to make up only 24.3 per cent in 2024. In contrast, the elderly population (60+ years) is expanding rapidly, expected to rise from 8.4 per cent in 2011 to 10.7 per cent in 2024, and further to 13.1 per cent by 2031.

Citing an OECD report, SBI Research pointed out that 25 per cent of the global workforce growth over the next decade will come from India. By 2030, India’s working-age population is expected to surpass 100 crores, a demographic shift that could serve as a major growth multiplier.

Urbanisation and Economic Growth

India’s urban landscape is transforming at a rapid pace. The country’s urban population, which accounted for 31.1 per cent of the total in the 2011 census, is expected to rise to 35-37 per cent in the upcoming 2024 census. The number of cities with over one million residents has increased from 18 in 1991 to 52 in 2011, and this figure is expected to rise to between 75 and 80 in the next census.

“Due to increased levels of urbanisation, the number of million-plus cities has been growing steadily,” the report stated. This urban growth is likely to drive economic opportunities, particularly in the services and industrial sectors, as India continues to leverage its youthful workforce and growing urban centers.

With a burgeoning working-age population, increasing urbanisation, and a steady rise in elderly citizens, India’s demographic landscape is undergoing significant shifts. These changes will require adaptive governance and forward-looking policies to maximize the country’s growth potential in the years to come.

(With ANI inputs.)