Oil edges up from two-week lows as investors await US inventory data

Oil prices rise: Oil prices edged higher on Thursday from two-week lows, with investors eyeing developments in the Middle East and more details on China's stimulus plans, as well as awaiting the release of official US oil inventory data.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose 17 cents, or 0.2 per cent, to $74.39 a barrel by 0408 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $70.58 a barrel, up 19 cents, or 0.3 per cent.

Both benchmarks settled down on Wednesday, closing at their lowest levels since Oct. 2 for a second day in a row.

The benchmarks are down 6-7 per cent so far this week after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency cut demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

Prices have also fallen as risk premiums have cooled with fears having eased that a retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran could disrupt oil supplies, though uncertainty remains over conflict in the Middle East.

"We are now playing a waiting game for two things. Firstly the China NPC (National People's Congress) standing committee to flesh out the details and the size of the fiscal stimulus package which I believe is coming," Tony Sycamore, IG market analyst in Sydney, said.

Investors are waiting for further details from Beijing on its broad plans announced on Oct. 12 to revive its ailing economy.

China said on Thursday it would expand a "white list" of housing projects eligible for financing and increase bank lending for such developments to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) as it aims to shore up its ailing property market.

Sycamore said Israel's response to Iran's recent attack was the second major focus for the market.

"It’s coming, we know that but we don't know when," he said, adding that both factors created upside risks for crude oil prices.

In Iran, the authorities are working to control an oil spill off Kharg Island, the country's IRNA news agency reported on Wednesday.

"It appears to be unrelated to the Israel-Hamas war, but it drew attention to Iran's oil export facilities," ANZ analysts said in a note.

In the US, crude oil and fuel stocks fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday, against expectations of a build-up in crude stockpiles.

Crude stocks fell by 1.58 million barrels in the week ended Oct. 11, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 5.93 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 2.67 million barrels, they said.

Ten analysts polled by Reuters had estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 1.8 million barrels in the week to Oct. 11. EIA/S

"Any signs of weak demand in EIA’s weekly inventory report could put further downward pressure on oil prices," ANZ analysts said.

The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, will release its data at 11:00 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) on Thursday.

Also supporting oil prices, the European Central Bank is likely to lower interest rates again on Thursday, the first back-to-back rate cut in 13 years, as it shifts focus from cooling inflation in the euro zone to protecting economic growth.