Christmas Rally For Crude: Oil Prices Rise 1% In Pre-Holiday Trade

Christmas Rally For Crude: Oil prices rose more than 1 per cent on Tuesday, reversing the prior session's losses on a brightening short-term outlook tied to the prospect of slightly tightening supplies as trade thinned ahead of the Christmas and Hanukkah holidays.

Brent crude futures LCOc1 settled at $73.58, rising 95 cents, or 1.3 per cent. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 settled at $70.10, rising 86 cents, or 1.2 per cent.

FGE analysts said they expect the benchmark prices will fluctuate around current levels in the near term "as activity in the paper markets decreases during the holiday season and market participants stay on the sidelines until they get a clearer view of 2024 and 2025 global oil balances."

Supply and demand changes in December have been supportive of their current less-bearish view so far, the FGE analysts said in a note.

"Given how short the paper market is on positioning, any supply disruption could lead to upward spikes in structure," they added.

Greater Oil Demand For Next Few Months

Some analysts also pointed to signs of greater oil demand over the next few months.

"The year is ending with the consensus from major agencies over long 2025 liquids balances starting to break down," Neil Crosby, Sparta Commodities' assistant vice president of oil analytics, said in a note.

"The EIA's short-term energy outlook recently shifted their 2025 liquids to a draw, despite continuing to bring back some OPEC+ barrels next year," Crosby said.

US crude oil and distillate stocks were seen falling last week by 3.2 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively, while gasoline stocks were seen rising last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. Gasoline inventories were seen rising by 3.9 million barrels.

The figures come ahead of data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Department of Energy, at 1 p.m. EST (1800 GMT) on Friday.

Also supporting prices was a plan by China, the world's biggest oil importer, to issue 3 trillion yuan ($411 billion) worth of special treasury bonds next year, as Beijing ramps up fiscal stimulus to revive a faltering economy.

China Stimulus to Supoprt WTI Crude

China's stimulus is likely to provide near-term support for WTI crude at $67 a barrel, said OANDA senior market analyst Kelvin Wong.

Markets will also be watching the US economy, the world's largest oil consumer, which released a mixed bag of data.

While consumer confidence weakened in December, new orders for key US-manufactured capital goods surged in November amid strong demand for machinery and new home sales rebounded, suggesting the US economy was on a solid footing as the year closes out.

US markets will be closed on Wednesday, Dec. 25, and there will be no global oil market report for the day.